Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

نویسندگان

  • Cunrui Huang
  • Adrian Gerard Barnett
  • Xiaoming Wang
  • Pavla Vaneckova
  • Gerard FitzGerald
  • Shilu Tong
چکیده

BACKGROUND Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. OBJECTIVES We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. DATA SYNTHESIS Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature-mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. CONCLUSIONS Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

BACKGROUND High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics....

متن کامل

Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality

Through the 21 century, a significant increase in heat events is likely across California (USA). Beyond any climate change, the state will become more vulnerable through demographic changes resulting in a rapidly aging population. To assess these impacts, future heat-related mortality estimates are derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century. Heat-related m...

متن کامل

تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر درجه حرارت حوضه آبریز زاینده‌رود با استفاده از محاسبات نرم یادگیری ماشینی بیزین

This study aims to investigate the changes of minimum and maximum temperature variables under the impact of climate change for time period of 2015-2100 in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. The outputs of 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three green-house emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) are employed from the Fifth Assessment Report (CMIP5) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate C...

متن کامل

Approaches for estimating effects of climate change on heat-related deaths: challenges and opportunities

The distribution of overall temperature and the frequency of heat waves may be shifting due to climate change. However, forecasting future health consequences of higher temperatures in a given city is complicated by uncertainties in how populations and societal infrastructure will adapt. This paper reviews approaches to address these challenges, including: (1) using historical weather–mortality...

متن کامل

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality

BACKGROUND Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relati...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره 119  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2011